Climate change is not always about absolute increases in temperature.
An important element is the volatility in climate. This can do more damage that a simple increase. It is good to see this issue being addressed in a recent World Bank working paper looking at Tanzania.
My instinct is to believe the results of this paper.
Climate Volatility and Poverty Vulnerability in Tanzania
Syud Amer Ahmed
Noah S. Diffenbaugh
Thomas W. Hertel
Purdue University - Center for Global Trade Analysis
David B. Lobell
University of California - Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
Ana R. Rios
World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 5117
Climate models generally indicate that climate volatility may rise in the future, severely affecting agricultural productivity through greater frequency of yield-diminishing climate extremes, such as droughts. For Tanzania, where agricultural production is sensitive to climate, changes in climate volatility could have significant implications for poverty. This study assesses the vulnerability of Tanzania's population to poverty to changes in climate variability between the late 20th century and early this century. Future climatescenarios with the largest increases in climate volatility are projected to make Tanzanians increasingly vulnerable to poverty through its impacts on the production of staple grains, with as many as 90,000 additional people, representing 0.26 percent of the population, entering poverty in the median case. Extreme poverty-increasing outcomes are also found to be greater in the future under certain climate scenarios. In the 20th century, the greatest predicted increase in poverty was equal to 880,000 people, while in the 21st century, the highest possible poverty increase was equal to 1.17 million people (approximately 3.4 percent of the population). The results suggest that the potential impacts of changes in climate volatility and climate extremes can be significant for poverty in Sub-Saharan African countries like Tanzania.
Keywords: Rural Poverty Reduction, Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases, Science of Climate Change, Regional Economic Development, Climate Change Economics