Research Paper: The Impact of Sea Level Rise on Developing Countries: A Comparative Analysis

One of the key issues in the global warming debate is how to measure the costs (and benefits) of global warming. Whilst there may be some benefits (expounded by Richard Tol and others related to agricultural production, tourism and reductions in cold weather related deaths) the costs are potentially far higher.

However, although sea level rises are assumed to affect developing countries most severely (Bangladesh is the oft cited example) with migration of a massive scale seen as a serious cost there have been few attempts to quantify the issue.
This new paper by the environmental team at the World Bank looks to be an excellent paper worthy of reading.

In this paper, the authors have assessed the consequences of continued SLR for 84
developing countries.

The results reveal that hundreds of millions of people in the developing world are likely to be displaced by SLR within this century, and accompanying economic and ecological damage will be severe for many. At the country level, results are extremely skewed, with severe impacts limited to a relatively small number of countries. For these countries (such as Vietnam, A. R. of Egypt, and The Bahamas), however, the consequences of SLR are potentially catastrophic. For many others, including some of the largest (such as China), the absolute magnitudes of potential impacts are very large.

Hopefully this will be the start of more academic research in this area.
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"The Impact of Sea Level Rise on Developing Countries: A
Comparative Analysis"
World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 4136


Contact: SUSMITA DASGUPTA
World Bank - Development Research Group (DECRG)
Email: sdasgupta@worldbank.org
Auth-Page: http://ssrn.com/author=55072

Co-Author: BENOIT LAPLANTE
Independent Consultant
Auth-Page: http://ssrn.com/author=646347

Co-Author: CRAIG MEISNER
World Bank
Email: c.meisner@cgiar.org
Auth-Page: http://ssrn.com/author=410530

Co-Author: DAVID WHEELER
Institute for International Economics
Auth-Page: http://ssrn.com/author=763142

Co-Author: DAVID JIANPING YAN
Independent Consultant
Auth-Page: http://ssrn.com/author=753704

Full Text: http://ssrn.com/abstract=962790
ABSTRACT: Sea level rise (SLR) due to climate change is a serious
global threat. The scientific evidence is now overwhelming.
Continued growth of greenhouse gas emissions and associated
global warming could well promote SLR of 1m-3m in this century,
and unexpectedly rapid breakup of the Greenland and West
Antarctic ice sheets might produce a 5m SLR. In this paper, the
authors have assessed the consequences of continued SLR for 84
developing countries. Geographic Information System (GIS)
software has been used to overlay the best available,
spatially-disaggregated global data on critical impact elements
(land, population, agriculture, urban extent, wetlands, and GDP)
with the inundation zones projected for 1-5m SLR. The results
reveal that hundreds of millions of people in the developing
world are likely to be displaced by SLR within this century, and
accompanying economic and ecological damage will be severe for
many. At the country level, results are extremely skewed, with
severe impacts limited to a relatively small number of countries.
For these countries (such as Vietnam, A. R. of Egypt, and The
Bahamas), however, the consequences of SLR are potentially
catastrophic. For many others, including some of the largest
(such as China), the absolute magnitudes of potential impacts are
very large. At the other extreme, many developing countries
experience limited impacts. Among regions, East Asia and the
Middle East and North Africa exhibit the greatest relative
impacts. To date, there is little evidence that the international
community has seriously considered the implications of SLR for
population location and infrastructure planning in developing
countries. The authors hope that the information provided in this
paper will encourage immediate planning for adaptation.