Sunday, December 10, 2006

Love Global Warming, Hate "Kooky English blogs"

The latest gem from CEI has landed talking about the need to consider the good things that global warming may bring to the cold US states.

My favourite or should that be favorite quote is:
At the risk of further ridicule in kooky blogs in England, where global warming alarmism is now a religion, that sounds pretty good to me. Fewer people will die from the cold.

I wonder if we qualify as a "kooky" blog? Even if we do not I suspect the risk of ridicule is very real.

Love Global Warming
At the risk of committing heresy, I'd like to suggest that the debate about climate change include, for once, a fair assessment of the benefits alongside the declamations of harm.

For example, cold winter storms kill a lot of people. More people die from blizzards and cold spells than from heat waves. Increased death rates usually persist for weeks after the unusually cold temperatures have passed, which suggests that the cold is killing people who would otherwise live into another season at least. Mortality rates during heat waves are just the reverse. The increase ends and often the rate drops below normal as soon as temperatures cool, which suggests that the higher temperatures are killing people who are likely to die soon anyway. It is true that mortality rates from both cold and hot weather have been declining in rich countries for a long time. That's because wealthier societies can adapt and protect themselves better from temperature extremes. But it also appears that deaths from hot weather have been declining more rapidly than those from cold.

So modest climatic improvement would be to have fewer and less severe big winter storms. Amazingly, that's exactly what we should get if global warming theory turns out to be true. The models say that much of the warming will occur in the upper latitudes and in the winter. At the risk of further ridicule in kooky blogs in England, where global warming alarmism is now a religion, that sounds pretty good to me. Fewer people will die from the cold.

This non-linear cold death, hot death stuff requires a little more research.

You have to love the conclusion of this piece of work though - so all is not rosy in the good news garden that is "global warming".
This promising scenario of milder winters in northern regions, which would become reality in the unlikely event that global warming turns out to be as considerable as predicted, comes with a catch, however. Air-conditioning is now considered a necessity, not only in Houston and Washington, D.C., but even in some northern climes where no matter how hot it gets during the day, it still cools down at night. Air-conditioning takes a lot of energy. But to stop global warming, we're supposed to use much less energy. Given our obvious preference for living in warmer climates as long as we have air-conditioning, I doubt that we're going to go on the energy diet that the global warming doomsters urge us to undertake.

I intend to post on the issue of "global warming doomsters" soon, not least because it is a great phrase.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

I think there's definitely more to put from 'kooky' English bloggers because the complete opposite is going to happen to the UK if global warming lives up to it's predictions. Melting of the ice caps, apart from raising the sea levels, also decreases the salinity and introduces cold ice cap water into the oceans and disrupts the flows and currents, in particular, the Gulf Stream, which heats the UK during the winter. So, if global warming heats up the earth and ice caps melt the UK will either suffer from colder winters and hotter summers or a possible onset of a small ice age! So global warming isn't really as beneficial as it may seem..